SUAREZ:  Now we’ll continue with our conversation on climate change on this World Food Day.  Cynthia Rosenzweig, we’ve been talking about how the impact of climate change will be disproportionately felt by the poor.  Why? 

ROSENZWEIG:  Many studies have been done on how climate change would affect agriculture around the world and the studies show that in the lower latitudes where it is hot already, the climate changes will have a strong effect right from the beginning even with a small amount of warming that is negative to the production there.  So in the developing countries which tend to be in the lower latitudes, the poor farmers will be bearing the brunt of these changes.  It’s high temperatures which have in effect a negative effect on crops, also increasing droughts and floods.  And those changing climate conditions will bring changes in the pests, the critters that attack the crops as well, and even some of those post-harvest bacteria and other organisms which Dr. Nelson is working on so hundreds of studies have shown that the poor farmers in developing countries are more vulnerable. 

SUAREZ:  At the same time, will places that are now inhospitable for agriculture become more able to be productive places?  Parts of Siberia, parts of Canada?  Will there be a sort of global status when it comes to where you grow food and how much you can grow?  The problem is where the people are. 

ROSENZWEIG:  There will definitely be shifts in what we call agro-ecological zones.  Agriculture will be able to expand to a certain degree into higher latitudes as you mentioned, up into Canada and in Russia and also in mountain areas up into higher latitudes.  But up there the soils really aren’t very good.  Our main agricultural areas are, for example, in the United States in the central part of our own country and as these zones shift, the actual potential doesn’t remain equal, that there is the potential for even some negative pressure on our agricultural allegiance as well.  And of course where the people are is also very important.  So that every country has an agriculture and it’s really important that  I don’t think we can just say, oh well, we’ll be growing all our food in Siberia for especially developing countries agriculture is a bigger portion of their GDP and is a pathway to development and so doing everything that’s possible to ensure a vibrant, resilient agriculture in those countries is very important.

SUAREZ:  And it’s unlikely the Russians are going to welcome 70 million Bangladeshis as their new agricultural lands open up.  We don’t really have a worldwide system for accommodating these changes, do we?

ROSENZWEIG:  No, we don’t really and that’s one area where we are now beginning to work, which we call adaptation to climate change.  All over the world there is work on developing resilient agricultural systems, helping farmers to change their practices with the changing climate.  This may mean changing crop varieties, maybe even growing different crops, changing growing seasons, having more efficient irrigation where needed, making sustainable irrigation in areas which may get drier, but there are lots of things that can be done to help farmers adapt. 

SUAREZ:  One of the approaches that is often talked of in the multi-prong strategy is what are we going to do is biofuels.  Suzanne Hunt, what is biofuel?

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